Dan Haren

Latest News about Dan Haren Update: Dan Haren’s first-half and second-half splits are probably the worst guarded secret in fantasy baseball. Every potential Haren owner knows that he blows the competition away up until the All-Star break before his numbers take a nose dive. Many fantasy championships have been won by riding him for half a season before trading him for a king’s ransom.

2010 has been different in that Haren hasn’t posted elite numbers; in fact, thanks to a 6.08 May ERA, he entered the All-Star break with a merely mortal 4.36 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Now, he enters the time of year where his fantasy value generally falls off a cliff. Will he continue to suck this season, or is he in the midst of a slump that will continue into the second half?

Haren has been getting just a bit unlucky in nearly all facets of his game, and that bad luck has added up to what looks like a poor season. Let’s break him down.

First off, Haren’s BABIP is .351, nearly 50 points higher than his career .304 mark. More balls are finding the holes and gaps this year than in others. Next, he’s stranding just under 70 percent of runners on base, something he hasn’t done since his rookie year in St. Louis. His homer per fly ball rate is higher than it’s ever been.

The good news is that his strikeout rate is also higher than it’s ever been, while his walk rate hasn’t risen too much. If Haren can give up few fly balls and more ground balls, numbers that are currently skewed more toward fly balls than ever, he’s an excellent candidate for a strong second half.

I don’t expect Haren to suck over the second half, even though it’s his custom to do just that. Maybe this year he’s reversed the trend, posting a mediocre first half before becoming dominant at the break. I’d talk to the likely-terrified Haren owner in your league about one of his other players, then try and get Haren thrown into a deal as an afterthought to balance the trade. You may be able to pick up a guy I think will avoid a second-half slump on the cheap.